Asylum Seekers in Visegrad Countries – Forcibly Displaced or Drawn by Economic Opportunities?

Between 2014 and 2017 a record number of asylum seekers have entered the European Union. Among the Central and Eastern European countries the Visegrad countries have been by far the most popular choice among asylum seekers, yet surprisingly, it has been neglected by the literature. The governments of the Visegrad countries have mainly adopted a hostile attitude towards asylum seekers, claiming that either they are illegal economic migrants, or carry parasites or are generally aggressive, especially towards women. This article analyses the drivers of migration and answers the question whether asylum seekers who apply for refugee status in the Visegrad countries have been pushed by violence or are more likely to have been drawn by economic opportunities. Using a panel dataset and a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model, the article finds that poverty, an increased number of deaths due to violent conflict and political terror in the sending country are the main determinants which increase the probability that the country of origin will produce a forced migrant. The article finds no evidence to support the claims of the governments of the Visegrad countries that arrivals to their countries are illegal economic migrants and not asylum seekers; on the contrary, the results indicate that on average asylum seekers entering the Visegrad countries have been forcibly displaced in their countries of origin.