The Relationship between State Fragility and Forced Migration

While the impact of conflict on forced migration is clear, the relationship between different types of non-conflict state fragility and forced migration remains underexplored. This paper undertakes an empirical analysis of the pathways between state fragility and forced displacement, using an innovative set of categorical variables that measure and categorize a state’s fragility based on its mixture of authority, capacity, and legitimacy. In line with previous research we find that violence is the dominant factor in forcing people to leave their homes. However, we show that a substantial number of people also decides to leave states characterized by a lower capacity to provide basic public services. This paper provides suggestions for potential research directions for international studies scholars while also having practical implications for setting national and international policies to manage state fragility and forced migration.