Nature Against Wind Power? A Quantitative Analysis of Environmental Considerations in Norway’s Wind Power Development

Most industrialised countries today have implemented goals and support schemes with the intention of favouring renewable power. This gives rise to legitimate discussions about thresholds for ‘acceptable’ nature impact. For windpower – a spatially and environmentally impactful energy source – these issues require careful consideration and balancing when authorities decide to grant – or not grant – a licence for wind power production. The trade-off between low-carbon technologies and high-nature impacts, can be a difficult political exercise. It has caused public as well as academic debates, particularly in countries boosting their renewable energy production. While qualitative studies have analysed the integration of environmental considerations taken when developing renewable energy, these have often focussed on more case-specific impact analyses. Limited quantitative research has enabled a broader look at how environmental impacts influence the likelihood of being granted a licence. This paper develops a dataset to test the weight given to nature protection and official stakeholder positions in Norwegian wind power license decisions. To our knowledge, this is the first time environmental impact on wind power licencing outcomes has been quantitatively measured. We rely on data coded from public documents pertaining to all the 203 cases of wind power projects which have submitted early notification or licence application in Norway between 1998 and 2018. A particular focus is given to environmental impacts, by coding of the projects’ Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), as well as to key/local stakeholder positions. Our research findings are two-fold. First of all, environmental impacts of a project do carry some weight in the final decision-making: a ‘bad score’ on nature impacts reduces the likelihood of a positive licence outcome. Furthermore, preliminary findings indicate that the local municipalities have a significant influence on licence outcome. In most cases an opposing host municipality means that a licence will not be granted. These findings give rise to important and more transparent discussions about environmental impacts and licensing practices, predictability in the licensing process, and democratic challenges of informal influence on licensing decisions.