Redirection of Polish Foreign and Security Policy after 2015 and its Implications for the European Union

The aim of this paper is to explore to what extent has Polish foreign and security policy after 2015 been undergoing a fundamental redirection and what implications the change have on the European Union. The extent of foreign policy change constitutes therefore the dependent variable (DV) and can be defined as incremental shifts in existing structures, or introduction of new and an innovative policies (Bennett and Howlett, 1992). The independent variable (IV) relates to the sources of foreign policy change which are conceptualized based on the model of foreign policy change put forward by Charles Hermann in his article for the International Study Quarterly (1990). Hermann argues that the primary change agents as he describes the sources for foreign policy change impact in a direct or indirect way the decision making process which leads to foreign policy change. This paper proceeds as follows: first it delivers a background for the examination of Polish foreign policy change after 2015 by discussing the declarations and the ideas of the Law and Justice government regarding foreign and security policy and by focusing on the discontinuities. Next, the paper reviews the concepts applied in the literature for the study of foreign policy change and puts forward a research framework suitable for answering the puzzle raised by this paper. In the next step, the paper examines four main change agents - leader driver, bureaucratic advocacy, domestic restructuring and external shock and put forwards conclusions regarding the extent of Polish foreign policy change (Hermann 1990) after 2015 based on three case studies: Polish policy towards CSDP, Germany and the United States.