Electoral Ramifications of Wind Power Development in Denmark 1979-2019

Do voters retrospectively punish politicians for enacting policies that lower CO2-emissions? There is broad public support in most countries for lowering emissions, but concrete policy initiatives to this end face opposition in communities where costs are imposed. If this opposition translates into electoral losses down the line, elected officials might think twice about pursuing such policies. This may in turn hamper mitigation efforts. We know little about the extent to which voters who bear the cost of climate and environmental policies express their grievances through the ballot box. This study therefore connects granular, as-if random variation in the construction of wind power developments with precinct-level election returns in Denmark for the period 1979-2019. We investigate whether support for local and national incumbents, as well as electoral turnout, change in response to wind power developments. This provides new insights into environmental politics and the nature of political efficacy in the Danish political system. The study combines wind data, precinct-level voting data, and geolocation data for wind turbines, electoral precincts, and polling places. These are rich data sources the social sciences seldom explore, and this paper thus represents a substantial empirical effort of relevance to both academics and policymakers.