During the first phase of the 2008/2009 financial crisis most OECD member states reacted to the economic downturn by applying large fiscal stimulus packages. However, these fiscal stimulus packages varied greatly in regard to their size and their share of public expenditure measures and public revenue measures, as well as in the choice of specific fiscal policy measures. How can this variation in fiscal policy responses to the financial crisis be explained?
To answer these research questions, the paper aims to identify the driving political and economic determinants behind the various fiscal policy reactions of the OECD member states to the economic crisis in regard to size, composition and the chosen policy measures of the fiscal packages via international comparison. A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis will be applied to identify the driving forces for the fiscal policy reaction to the crisis. The hypotheses are generated out of a combination of partisan political theory and the “Varieties of Capitalism”-Approach, controlling for other socio-economic and political factors.
In a first step, possible explanations for the size of the fiscal stimulus packages of the OECD states will be tested applying a fuzzy-set QCA design. The second step tests hypothesis concerning the share of public revenue measures and public spending measures within the fiscal stimulus packages. In a third step, the choice of measures will be addressed. Here it will be analyzed what determines the choice of measures and who profits most from the fiscal stimulus packages. If tax cuts, for instance, were part of the packages, it is investigated whether companies, consumer or employees profited most.
Methodologically, the role of the calibration of fuzzy-set scores on the results will be focused on. Thus, a discussion on potential conflicts between theory-guided calibration and the methodological needs of fuzzy-set QCA will be given.
Key words: Financial Crisis, fuzzy-set QCA, Calibration, Varieties of Capitalism; Parties, Fiscal stimulus packages
