Perceptions of opinion poll credibility: The role of partisan bias

Prior to elections, voters are now exposed to more information regarding the likely outcome than ever before. Opinion polls assessing voting intention are published throughout the electoral cycle, establishing public perceptions of the state of electoral competition. Yet pre-election polls do not share a unified voice and in some contexts vary considerably in terms of their estimations, the vendors who conduct the poll, and where the poll is published. Moreover, an emerging literature has begun to question the traditional conception that opinion polls are objective sources of information, rather suggesting that such information may be subject to partisan bias. This paper develops upon this work by establishing the determining attributes for subjective pre-election poll credibility in a polarised bi-partisan political context. Through the use of a conjoint analysis in Turkey, this paper produces strong evidence that polls are indeed perceived differently across partisan lines. Whereas incumbent-supporters give more credence to polls that show their party in the lead, opposition-supporters are much more likely to place weight on where the information is published when determining poll credibility.