Hurting or Healing? Conflict Exposure, PTSD and Public Support for Truth Commissions

Truth commissions are an often discussed and sometimes controversial means to establish sustainable peace. Despite their prevalence and potential, the determinants of public support for truth commissions remain poorly understood. In this paper, we argue that contingent on how victims cope with the war-time violence they have experienced, truth commissions may be seen as both hurting and healing: While truth commissions might heal those less traumatized in the aftermath of conflict, they are potentially more hurtful for more traumatized citizens. Employing a most different case design, we test this argument using comparative and representative survey data across three post-conflict cases: Nepal, Guatemala, and Northern-Ireland. Our results indicate support for a direct effect of both self-reported exposure and PTSD on support for truth commissions, as well as a mediating effect through PTSD symptoms. Contrary to expectations, we do not find evidence of a moderating effect of PTSD. These findings contribute to a more nuanced and cross-national understanding of the role of trauma in shaping public opinion in post-conflict settings.