Why Do Candidates Use Online Media in Constituency Campaigns? An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

Abstract ECPR Joint Sessions 2012 Authors: Frank Marcinkowski & Julia Metag, Department of Communication, University of Muenster Contact: frank.marcinkowski@uni-muenster.de; julia.metag@uni-muenster.de Theoretical Background Surveys and interviews reveal that politicians believe that online media will change the way election campaigns are carried out and they stress the importance of the internet for election campaigns (e.g. Karlsen, 2009; Vaccari 2008; Wolling, Schmolinsky, & Emmer, 2010). However, regardless of all of the politicians seemingly being convinced of the internet’s significance for election campaigns, its use varies significantly between countries, different kinds of elections and candidates (Åström & Karlsson, 2011; Kluver, Jankowski, Foot, & Schneider 2007; Schweitzer, 2005, 2008; Utz, 2009). This variation in the use of online media is what this paper attempts to explain. Why do some candidates almost entirely adjust their election campaign to online media and others do not? If all politicians are convinced of the internet’s influence on the political system why is there still variation in the extent of online campaigning? Political science has identified various structural and strategic factors influencing the extent of the use of the internet during election campaigns, such as party membership, the size of the budget or incumbency (Gibson & McAllister, 2006; Lev-On, 2010; Sudulich, 2009; Zittel, 2009). This article suggests a different approach. It is based on the observation that there is often an inconsistency between the attitudes and intentions and the actual behavior of a person. With respect to the mass media, this means that people often hold positive attitudes toward a specific medium but do not use it regardless. The most prominent approach which discusses the incongruity of attitudes and behavior is the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1985; Ajzen & Madden, 1986; Madden, Scholder, & Ajzen, 1992). According to the theory of planned behavior, behavioral intentions are determined by the interplay of three different elements: attitude, social norm and perceived behavioral control (Ajzen, 1988). Intention itself is an inevitable condition for actual behavior. The element attitude means the attitude towards a certain kind of behavior (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980). Social norm refers to the perceived social pressure through the behavior of other people in someone’s immediate surroundings (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010). Perceived behavioral control denotes the extent to which people think that a certain kind of behavior is subject to their own will and control (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010). We suggest to conceptualize the element of attitudes as media-related predispositions which determine the intentional and actual use of online media by candidates during election campaign: H1: The more candidates think that online campaigning has an effect on voters and the election campaign, the higher their intention to use online media. Also candidates should perceive social pressure if all the other candidates use online media which is referred to by the element of social norm. The idea is that if the candidates believe that everyone else includes the media in their campaign they do so as well: H2: The higher the adaptation to the media by other candidates or parties, the higher their intention to use online media. Finally, we conceptualize the perceived behavior control as the political experience and self-efficacy a candidates shows. According to the theory, perceived behavioral control influences the intention a behavior positively. We, therefore, suppose that candidates who are more experienced and have higher chances of winning perceive a higher extent of control over their behavior. H3: The stronger the perceived behavioral control, the stronger the intention to use online media. The intention then is supposed to determine the actual behavior of online campaigning during the election campaign. Data and Method This approach is tested on the basis of a paper-and-pencil survey of a sample of 366 political candidates during the height of their campaign for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2010. We used structural equation modeling to analyze if internet-related attitudes also influence the intention and, in a second step, the actual use of online campaigning. The model included three latent independent variables, attitudes, social norm and perceived behavioral control. Two variables covering presumed influence of the internet on voters and on the election campaign were used as factors for the latent variables attitude. The latent variable social norm was reflected through different variables tackling the general adaptation of the political system to the media. And the perceived behavioral norm was reflected through the perceived chance of winning, the candidates’ political experience and their status of being an incumbent or not. These three latent variables were modeled as predictors of the manifest dependent variable intention which was operationalized through the reported importance of having a website during the campaign. This variable, together with the perceived behavioral control, determine the manifest dependent variable actual behavior which was measured through a dichotomous variables whether these candidates actual had a personal website during the campaign or not. Results The model shows a good fit. The attitude toward online campaigning influences the intention of having a personal websites positively. Perceived behavioral control is the strongest predictor of behavioral intention. Intention then influences actually having a personal website positively. In contrast to our hypothesis, there is no significant effect from social norm on intention. Mostly though, the model supports our assumptions. If candidates think that the internet can influence voters their intention to use it is higher. The same holds for perceived behavioral control, this effect is even stronger. The more experienced the candidates are and the higher their self-efficacy the more they have the intention to use online media and the more they also actually do so. The internet is not a medium of underdogs and challengers any longer but of the successful and experienced candidates. 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