The Change of the Polish Abortion Law in Times of the Covid-19 Pandemic – a Window of Opportunity or a Misperception of Power Structures?

To the Panel: COVID-19 and the policy sciences: Shocks as levers for policy change? To amend the abortion law was a long-term goal of the Polish government. On two occasions, it had attempted to pass a stricter regulation that failed due to public protest. During the pandemic, the Constitutional Court was activated and issued a ruling recommending an abortion law in October 2020 that was in line with what the government desired. After that judgment, a countrywide series of public protest broke out and the Women’s Strike emerged as a new social movement that included also further political demands in their public action. Now, the question is how to interpret this case of policy change in light of the Multiple Streams Framework: The government obviously seemed to consider the pandemic in a rational perspective as a window of opportunity. Demonstrations were forbidden and despite several anti-crisis shields implemented by the government, people were struggling in everyday life due to rising infection rates in autumn. However, the opposition articulated its disagreement on the streets strongly and immediately, so the question occurs which new dynamics this policy change created between the opposition inside and outside the parliament and if the issue will rather backfire on the government. While the MSF is often used to analyse how decisions did come about, this case study seeks to provide deeper insights into how the MSF can also help to uncover power dynamics and unintended consequences of decisions. In addition, I will also lay an emphasis on the question if the pandemic and its implications for political procedures had a specific intervening or amplifying effect.