Declining population – increasing populism? The impact of emigration on voting behavior in Germany

Much scholarly attention has focused on the influence of immigration on European democracies. Yet, a considerable number of European countries experience substantial outward migration rather than a large influx of people. However, social science research has rather neglected the political impact of emigration on their respective home countries. This study seeks to fill this gap by showing how out-migration influences electoral outcomes in Germany. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the following reunification, the country witnessed a mass emigration of people from its eastern to its western parts, causing a significant decline in population in several regions. Yet, it remains open to what extent this dynamic has contributed to the rise of the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). In what way has the modality, form and context of emigration been relevant here? Was it rather the experience of an emigration shock or the long-term decline of the population that led to increasing political dissatisfaction in the affected regions? Drawing on an original panel data set and applying time-series cross-sectional models, the paper examines how the outflow of people since the reunification has contributed to the rise of the AfD. It shows how in many German regions out-migration has not only led to an increasingly ageing and immobile population, but also to growing political dissatisfaction, abstention from elections as well as voting for extreme and protest parties. By adding emigration as an explanatory factor for the rise of the AfD, the study not only contributes to the understanding of the recent success of right-wing populism, but also hints to possible political counter-strategies for regions, which suffer from a similar dynamic of emigration.