Latent radical right demand and the electoral success of the populist radical right AfD in Germany

The belated success of the populist right in Germany has sparked great scholarly interest in the electoral appeal of the new party actor and the nature, profile, distinctiveness, and diversity of its electoral constituency. I argue that the success of the populist radical right in Germany, at its core, reflects the mobilization of deep-seated racist and nativist sentiments, which had been prevalent among parts of the German electorate even prior to the different economic, political, and cultural crises that the country has experienced over the last decade. Drawing on a novel and rich panel dataset of German municipalities (N=11000), it documents 1) that local communities with a history of voting for former extreme right actors display significantly greater levels of support for the populist radical right newcomer, 2) that this association has become stronger in the course of the radicalization of the AfD, and 3) that it accounts for ongoing growing electoral appeal in Eastern parts of Germany, but not in Western regions. The findings of this study have important implications for understanding political space and the future of the radical right in Germany.