When Bootleggers and Baptists connect: Politicisation and stalemate in the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement

In this paper, we analyze the extent to which a Bootlegger-Baptist coalition between European farmers and transnational environmentalists is driving the politicization of the EU-Mercosur agreement and consequent regulatory change in EU and Mercosur member states. Just as prohibition era laws invoked by Baptists to prevent drinking on Sunday served the interests of bootlegger cartels, environmentalists’ campaigns in defence of the Amazon serve the interests of import-competing beef producers whose carbon-intensity may be anathema to their ecological principles. Unlike in the prohibition era when the bootleggers were silent beneficiaries of Baptists’ lobbying, here they are also donning the mantle of environmental responsibility, linking unfair trade with environmental protection. Likewise, environmental groups are adamant that meat consumption levels are unsustainable, but single out South American production as problematic. Is this a “coalition” working together to politicize a trade agreement which works against their mutual interests? Or are they each pursuing their own in relative obscurity? By analysing online contestation networks in France and Ireland between 2014 and 2021, we first investigate the extent to which the beef industry and civil society organizations (CSO)s have actually united against the agreement, to suggest whether this is an alliance of adversaries, separate entities operating in parallel, or an active opponent with a silent partner. Then, we use content analysis to explore narratives of policy-makers and opposition groups in Mercosur countries to assess whether a California effect is taking place as a result of this coalition’s impact on politicization.