How to go low carbon: The role of federalism, institutional configurations, and actors in coal exit governance - Germany and Canada in comparison

Despite progress toward increasing renewables in national energy portfolios, dependence on high-carbon energy persists. While energy transitions are often focused on how to increase the share of low-carbon energy, the “flip-side” – the phase-out of high-carbon fossil fuel-based energy – is of at least equal importance in order to meet climate policy targets. Due to carbon lock-in, the phase-out of coal has proven difficult to achieve. Moreover, a coal phase-out comes with economic and social disruption to the communities, workers and industries which are dependent upon it (Spencer et al., 2018). Few of the largest coal-using countries have policies in place to actively manage a phase-out, let alone to address its economic and social impacts (Schindler, 2019). However, Germany and Canada have adopted plans to actively phase out coal that include measures to address the burdens on the losers in the transition process (Government of Canada, 2018; BMWi, 2019). We examine these two cases to learn what factors influenced policy change toward coal phase out. In that regard, we ask the following questions: 1) How have the framework conditions of federalism, institutional configurations and actors influenced policy change toward a coal exit? and 2) How do these factors explain the integration of concessions and just transition measures to address the economic and social implications of coal phase-out? To answer these questions, we employ a comparative political economy analysis of the German and Canadian governance contexts, institutions, actors, and processes that drove policy change toward coal phase-out. We hypothesize that the manner and speed of coal phase-outs in Germany and Canada are driven by the conditions of federalism and the relationships among institutions and actors within their respective energy policy and legal subsystems, influenced by the characteristics of being a coordinated market economy or a liberal market economy. We also hypothesize that these factors influence the integration of just transition measures. The paper is organized into four parts. First, we introduce the historical and governance contexts of climate and energy policy in Germany and Canada. Second, we examine the actors, institutions, and processes that influenced the shift in favour of coal phase-out. Third, we analyse the factors driving the outcomes of the German and Canadian coal phase-outs in terms of how they address economic and social impacts and their varying levels of ambition. Finally, we present our findings and conclusions regarding which factors influenced the coal exit plans. References: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie - BMWi (2019) Kommission “Wachstum, Strukturwandel und Beschäftigung - Abschlussbericht. Berlin, Germany. Government of Canada (2018) A Just and Fair Transition for Canadian Coal Power Workers and Communities. Gatineau, Quebec: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Schindler, H. (2019) Managing the coal phase-out – A comparison of actions in G20 countries. Berlin, Germany: International Secretariat of Climate Transparency. Spencer, T., Colombier, M., Sartor, O., Garg, A., Tiwari, V., Burton, J., Caetano, T., Green, F., Teng, F. & Wiseman, J. (2018) The 1.5°C target and coal sector transition: at the limits of societal feasibility. Climate Policy 18, 3: 335-351.