Does the Perceived Threat of Extreme Weather Drive Internal Migration? Evidence from U.S. National and State Migration Networks

Public and academic discourse on climate migration overemphasizes longer distance movement of people across borders, especially from the Global South to more industrialized countries. This tendency draws attention away from other important facets of climate migration, which include internal migration, mobilities over shorter distances, and those within advanced industrial countries. We contribute to this literature by looking at climate change-related internal migration in the U.S. Using two data sets, one of U.S. counties (2002-2015) and the other of Texas residents (post-Hurricane Harvey), we examine internal migration as a function of past extreme weather events and their media coverage, adjusting for other factors including geographic distance, population, and sociodemographic and economic variables. First, we show the linkage between exposure to natural disasters and patterns of migration between localities. Then, we examine how local media coverage moderates this effect by reinforcing perceived threats from extreme weather events. Compared to prior work which focused on out-migration, our data set of migration flows lets us study the entire migration calculus when individuals are faced with climate change, from when they leave and where they decide to go, providing insight into the extent climate considerations factor into where people choose to live. Our results inform sustainability policies such as climate change relocation subsidies. Finally, our work has implications for environmental justice, as the effects of climate change is unequally felt across segments of the population, with underprivileged groups most severely affected.