Mapping complex interactions of driving forces of the global energy transition: A network analysis approach

Transitioning to a low-carbon energy future will not happen fortuitously; rather it is a set of planned actions taken consciously to steer the pathways towards the development of more sustainable energy systems. Often, defining which pathways to take is challenging because the issue at hand involves many interdependent driving forces (e.g., technology transfer, social acceptance of technologies, access to financial capital) that exist at multiple scales, levels, and sectors. This will result in a complex web of interactions whereby improving one factor could potentially worsen other factors, making energy transitioning relatively more difficult. It is also possible that interactions could present positive outcomes when improving one factor resulted in a synergistic improvement on other factors. Understanding and analyzing such a complex web of interactions can provide distinct characteristics of the network, so as to identify driving forces that pose the greatest influence on the entire system either positively or negatively. This paper assesses the results of a structured expert foresight exercise conducted in February 2021 using a discourse network analysis approach. In this exercise, we engaged 22 stakeholders from academia, governmental agencies, and NGOs to discuss various driving forces implicating the global energy transition in the Global South. By calculating node centrality to identify important driving forces and subjecting this network to a community detection to identify sectoral clusters, we find significant drivers of energy transition across different sectors. The paper speaks to a growing debate on the energy transition in developing nations and the structural opportunities and constraints determining this transition.