The Return of Intergovernmentalism? De-Europeanization and EU Foreign Policy Decision-making

The EU’s role in international affairs has always depended in large part on its member states’ ability to overcome divergent national preferences and adopt common policies toward the outside world. So how does de-Europeanisation affect the making and the content of EU foreign policy? This paper develops a theoretical framework for analyzing the implications of de-Europeanisation for decision-making processes and policy outcomes in EU foreign policy. As de-Europeanisation progresses, EU foreign policy decision-making is less likely to fit the sociological theories of Normative Suasion, Policy Learning, Normative Entrapment, and Cooperative Bargaining and more likely to fit the intergovernmentalist theories of Log-rolling and Competitive Bargaining. These same dynamics will make it more difficult for the EU to achieve unity on complex and sensitive foreign policy issues and create opportunities for foreign powers to manipulate divisions among EU member states as they seek to shape a new world order radically different from the EU’s professed commitment to effective ‘rules-based multilateralism.