Overcoming the ‘leadership avoidance reflex’? Regional leadership and the self-conception of German political elites

Leadership of powerful states is considered crucial to the success of regional integration. Since the European Union (EU) entered a ‘polycrisis’, many eyes have therefore been on Germany. But do the German political elites see themselves as a potential leader in the EU? To date, it has not been empirically investigated whether the German elites have cast off their much-cited ‘leadership avoidance reflex’. This question is crucial, though, as it would be pointless to speculate about Germany’s leadership in the EU if not even the political elites themselves saw their country in such a role. Based on an original elite survey conducted by the author, this paper therefore investigates the extent to which German political elites conceive of themselves as a regional leader in different EU policies. The findings clearly show that the times of a ‘leadership avoidance reflex’ are gone. Instead, we find a high level of agreement across EU policies that Germany should take on a leadership role. However, the survey also reveals a gap between leadership aspiration and (perceived) reality, especially when it comes to Germany providing a vision for the future of the EU. Moreover, politicians are less convinced than state officials that Germany is taking on a leading role in Europe. Finally, the paper outlines the implications that the original survey results have for future EU crisis-management and Germany’s role therein.