EU foreign energy policy towards its fossil fuel exporting neighbours: preparing for a post fossil fuel era?

The COM claims to be the global climate leader. To act against climate change the energy sector needs to be included as it is responsible for more than two thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions. Decarbonisation will result in a decrease in the demand for fossil fuel energy. As fossil fuel exporters in the Southern Mediterranean are reliant on the EU being by far their main importer this could result in a loss of rents to give privileges to vested elites. If rents would fall this can result in a loss of government support with possible consequences still recently witnessed with the uprisings in countries such as Algeria. Reactions of the fossil fuel suppliers can be manifold however if the EU doesn’t act adequately it can lose its influence in the region as others are ready to fill in the gap. In this paper, I will address this issue by focusing on the questions 1) in how far the EC has changed its rhetoric towards these countries, 2) if this can be seen in the data and 3) why we have these results. Most academic literature on decarbonisation and the EU to date has focused on how to achieve the transition to a low carbon future for the EU but literature on the consequences of the ongoing energy transition for its fossil fuel partners around the Mediterranean region is rather limited. This paper will contribute to fill this gap.