Protest and Polarization: The Case of the 2018 Presidential Election in Brazil

How does the rise of a political protest, which is targeted at a specific leader, affect voters’ perception? Particularly, does exposure to the political movement make citizens dislike the other party? Drawing on psychological mechanisms, I consider how exposure to a significant political protest activates and reinforces pre-existing partisan identity and ultimately leads to preference polarization. To test this argument, I examine the impact of the Ele Não (Not Him) movement proceeding to the 2018 Brazilian presidential election. I use the 2018 Brazilian survey data to examine whether exposure to the protests is associated with voting intention. My findings suggest that the political protest may enhance political support among voters within the political allies that utilized mobilization. On the other hand, voters who are outside of political allies increasingly have negative assessments against the candidate who allies with the protest. These public opinion effects may result in a high level of mass polarization. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of political protests on voting behavior and the process of polarization in the context of widespread protests in democracies.