Narrative and Affective Origins of Economic Misperceptions under Authoritarianism: Evidence from Turkey

The hallmark of contemporary authoritarian regimes is the manipulation of information space to build the leader’s image as a competent ruler. The success of government propaganda, however, is not always guaranteed. Not only citizens tend to be skeptical towards propaganda, but also, they usually still have access to critical information channels. Thus, a lingering question is when and how authoritarian propaganda becomes successful at building misperceptions. In this paper, my goal is to show that the narrative and affective structure of economic propaganda matters. By delivering the economic propaganda through a narrative framework, authoritarian regimes can invoke affective reactions among their voters. This affective dimension, I argue, explains the appeal and success of government propaganda in authoritarian regimes. This study combines the qualitative analysis of the economic narrative of the Turkish regime with quantitative and experimental evidence of effects of this discourse to substantiate these arguments. First, I argue that the national developmental narrative has been central to the economic propaganda of the AKP during the last decade. I list four elements of this narrative: the promise of historic economic development, introduction of symbols of this economic development, the positive role of Erdogan in leading the development, and the negative reactions of Western states and domestic opposition groups' to this development. Through examples from the AKP's election campaigns, Erdogan's speeches, and other propaganda materials, I argue that this narrative, along with its elements, has gradually emerged since 2011, and it has been the primary way in which the AKP propaganda described the economy. Second, I use cross-sectional and experimental data to explore effects of this narrative on government supporters. Relying on representative data, I demonstrate that a significant portion of regime voters believe in this narrative. Belief in this narrative is highly correlated with media preferences, positive economic outlook, and support for the existing regime. Finally, I conduct an online survey experiment to explore the causal relationship. This experiment reveals that engaging with the national developmentalist narrative makes government supporters more enthusiastic and hopeful, while also building charismatic attachments to Erdogan. This affective dimension, I argue, explains the appeal of government propaganda in authoritarian regimes. This study contributes to the literature on public opinion under authoritarian regimes and opens new avenues for research on authoritarian political communication. Most importantly, it suggests that a focus on narratives and symbols may help us understand how authoritarian regimes can survive periods of economic decline through authoritarian propaganda. Secondly, by documenting the affective characteristics of popular support for Erdogan, it contributes to the growing literature on affective and charismatic attachments under contemporary authoritarian regimes. Finally, this paper opens new research avenues by showing that narratives spreading economic misperceptions can also produce positive emotions. This shows that a focus on selective exposure theory, especially with respect to mood adjustment theory, might be a fruitful path to better explain voters' engagement with authoritarian propaganda.