Beyond left-right politics: The territorial dimension as a driver of Affective Polarization. A longitudinal analysis.

Previous research has found that citizens’ perceptions of elites’ left-right polarization are one of the causes behind Affective Polarization (AP). But conflict and competition go beyond this axis in many countries in which other dimensions are politically relevant, such as the case of territorial polarization in multinational states. In order to fill this gap, this paper examines the role of perceived polarization along the two main axes of political competition in Spain (the left-right and the territorial dimensions) in the shaping of individuals’ AP. In spite of the alleged ability of the left-right axis to absorb any other political divisions, we find evidence that the perceived territorial conflict also affects AP and that the salience of the territorial conflict shapes this relationship. Furthermore, the impact of perceived elite conflict on each of the axis on AP differs depending on individuals’ self-reported ideology: perceiving polarization on the territorial axis leads to AP only among right-wing individuals, whereas perceiving polarization on the left-right axis leads to AP mainly among left-leaners. We examine the link between elite polarization as perceived by citizens and individual-level AP as well as the moderating role of ideology using an 11-wave Spanish panel survey. Our results have potential implications for the understanding of the causes fueling AP in multinational democracies and for de-polarizing strategies and interventions.