Immigrant proximity, ethnocentrism and Radical Right vote: a multi-level test of the halo effect in England

Literature on the bases to Populist Radical Right (PRR) voting has posited a so-called ‘halo effect’, emphasising local conditions as a precursor to PRR support. Previous research has demonstrated support for the ‘ethnic competition’ hypothesis whereby higher levels of immigration in the immediate vicinity increase support for these parties. However, at finer spatial scales, immigrant and ethnically diverse communities may be less likely to vote Radical Right – possible evidence of an intergroup contact effect. Instead, ethnically homogeneous areas react to a perceived, adjacent threat from ethnic diversity, in this ‘halo effect’. Recently, a growing body of work has operationalised and test the ‘halo’ mechanism in France, Germany, Switzerland and Sweden in particular. In the UK, the theory has only been tested indirectly, using ecological data. Using individual-level survey data from the 2017 SCoRE survey, combined with 2011 census data, and comparing with a baseline ecological model of 2015 local elections, this paper builds better-specified aggregate and individual models of the halo effect, and tests them on UKIP propensity to vote and measures of ethnocentrism in England. It tests a number of alternative operationalisations of the halo, based upon distance and contiguity measures combined with measures of ethnic population density. It finds that, though local conditions have had an evident bearing on levels of PRR success in England, a direct halo mechanism is less easily identifiable than has been the case in other country studies, even if manifest at the aggregate level.