Breaking the Carbon Lock-In: Identifying under which circumstances Covid-19 recovery packages can catalyse the Malaysian energy transition

The Paris agreement requires countries around the world to break away from carbon lock-in. This is a particular challenge for countries that are traditional oil and gas producers such as Malaysia. How do these countries break path-dependencies to shift from a fossil fuel heavy system to a system relying mainly on renewable energy? To pinpoint the leverage points, we model the Malaysian energy system and its dynamics. By using stakeholder input to identify the interactions between the main factors influencing the energy transition we create scenarios for the Malaysian energy transition until 2050. We identify the Covid-19 recovery packages as potential drivers for the energy transition. Yet, there are clear systematic blockages that need to change before the Covid-19 recovery packages can unfold their full potential. We do see the clear need to disperse the centralised political power to a more diverse set of actors in order to break the carbon lock-in.