Uncertainty – A Unifying Approach to Populism and Confidence in Government

In recent decades, many people have been lifted out of poverty, both within numerous countries and around the globe. Global populisms nevertheless cultivate an “us-versus- them” picture of the general public versus policy makers, seemingly indicating a malperformance and discontent with government in a great many countries. The cleavage between standards of living on the one hand and discontent with government on the other hand remains somewhat of a puzzling phenomenon. The fact that real incomes and living standards have improved in numerous countries and for a great many individuals stands in stark contrast with the discontent with government seemingly showing up in populist movements around the world. By marrying microdata of the 2017-2020 European and World Values Surveys on confidence in government with text-mining data on uncertainty as provided by the World Uncertainty Index this paper explores in a cross-sectional ordered logit analysis how narratives as to insecurity undermine confidence in government and thus provide fertile ground for political conflict. This paper lends support to the notion that perceptions about uncertainty are negatively correlated with confidence in government. Borrowing from these insights of micro-based research for macro issues of regime satisfaction suggests that populisms reflecting distrust in government are particularly strong where politics fails to cater to a quest for security and stability of expectations. Alas, to conclude that government consumption, often considered social insurance, would twist results favorably for government is mistaken. What matters is institutions lending stability to expectations.