Lost in the ether? Developing country participation in digital diplomacy

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many international organizations have moved in-person negotiations to virtual platforms. In this paper, we ask: How is developing countries' participation in multilateral negotiations affected by going virtual? While the reduced travel and participation costs associated with virtual negotiations could increase participation, alternate factors such as the quality of technological infrastructure and lack of dedicated time to negotiate might lead to reduced developing country participation in negotiations. To examine how participation is affected by a virtual shift, we use data from the negotiations of investor-state dispute settlement reform at the United Nations. In our analysis, we leverage a difference-in-differences design to understand changes in the frequency and extent of developing country participation before and after negotiations were made virtual. We then carry out a qualitative content analysis of negotiation transcripts to investigate changes in the content and form of developing country participation. This allows us to probe the mechanisms underpinning increased or decreased participation. We situate our research in the literatures on negotiation power in global governance, development studies on the domestic and international capacity of states, and the role of small states in international relations. We conclude by discussing the applicability of our argument to negotiations in other regime complexes of world politics.