Why do armed conflicts last so long? The effect of inertia and retaliation on the duration of the Colombian armed conflict

Why do armed conflicts last so long? The answer to these questions is of utmost importance not just for humanitarian reasons but also for the development of a country. However, the analysis of armed conflicts using traditional empirical tools is challenging. Statistical methods that assume independence do not capture the system's interdependence. Conflicts are better analysed as processes of interaction. In this paper, I present an approach that can answer this need. I study the Colombian conflict through a network analysis framework. Network analysis methods can capture the interdependence of dynamic systems. This approach provides better representations of armed conflicts. I use a relational event model to study interaction mechanisms between armed groups and their influence on the direction of the armed conflict. I use the Colombian conflict as it is a ripe example of a chronic conflict. I find inertia - the tendency to attack, and retaliation - the tendency to reciprocate an attack - influence the persistence of the Colombian conflict. Furthermore, I find that inertia has a stronger influence than retaliation. I also find that recent events have a stronger influence than past events in future attacks. Thus, I conclude that the armed conflict in Colombia is an offensive rather than a defensive dispute. This information has implications on policies for de-escalating conflict and preventing a relapse.