Constructing future policy mix pathways for light duty vehicle transitions: Comparative pathways for accelerating the diffusion of battery electric vehicles in Germany

This paper qualitatively explores a conceptual approach for ex-ante construction and evaluation of alternate policy mix pathways. Advances in the analysis of single climate policy instruments and of policy mixes have been made in energy system modelling (Koller et al. 2021), in conceptual work (Axsen et al. 2020) and in empirical ex-post analyses (Koch et al. 2019; Anderson/Sallee 2017). Political science and innovation studies analyses offer broad conceptualizations of designing policy mixes and to enhance policy mix characteristics (Rogge and Reichardt 2016). However, a conceptualization of dynamic climate policy pathways that integrates insights from engineering, economic and political perspectives is still missing. This paper builds on recent conceptual work on policy mixes for light duty vehicles (Axsen et al. 2020; Bhardwaj et al. 2020), to develop a tool for policy mix pathway construction, by focusing on intertemporal challenges. A fundamental notion of our approach is that policy pathways need to evolve and change over time. Technological system transitions undergo different stages: emergence, diffusion and saturation (or re-configuration) of zero GHG technologies, and associated behavioural, normative, political, legal, economics and business transformations. Scholars have argued that policy mixes need to evolve in order to address the inter-temporal challenges associated with each of these phases, and to enable these complex processes to unfold within the very short time spans of envisaged net zero transitions (e.g. Kivimaa 2019). We suggest that the LDV transport sector in Germany is moving from the emergent phase into diffusion stage. Alternative low-carbon technologies such as BEV are becoming more broadly available at significantly reduced costs. This requires policy instruments which actively place pressure on existing polluting technologies to displace them, rather than simply supporting the emergence of clean alternatives (Kern and Kivimaa 2017). This requires implementing stringent pricing/taxation which makes polluting technologies more expensive to buy and use, or stringent regulation which actively phases-out polluting technologies. We use Germany as illustrative case in order to apply our concept, and we derive alternative policy mix pathways which can accelerate the rate of diffusion/transition and deliver substantial GHG abatement in this sector. Co-authors: Christian Flachsland, Nils aus dem Moore, Nicolas Koch, Florian Koller, Sebastian Levi