Setting up international hydrogen value chains: lessons from natural gas trade

Hydrogen is widely expected to become a globally traded commodity, and several countries are preparing to become importers or exporters (IRENA, 2022). Considering the similarities between natural gas and hydrogen in terms of transport and storage, a global hydrogen market is often expected to develop in a similar way to the global natural gas market. However, little attention has been paid to what exactly these similarities are and what they can teach us about the timing, sequence and consequences of creating an international hydrogen market. To shed light on this question, this paper examines the evolution of natural gas import dependencies in Belgium, drawing on literature on the history of technology and trans-border networks and infrastructure (e.g. Hogselius et al, 2013). Similar to natural gas and LNG, Belgium is expected to import nearly all of its hydrogen demand. We review how the Belgian natural gas market evolved from the time the first natural gas molecules crossed the Dutch-Belgian border in 1966 until today, where Belgium like other European states is hit by high gas prices due to overall shortages. By mapping this evolution we seek to identify tipping points, opportunities, and pitfalls that may be relevant for the development of a hydrogen market in Europe as a whole, and Belgium in particular. The paper attempts to provide insights into what to expect from the development of a regional or global hydrogen market in terms of timing, volumes, sequences, etc. and prevent us from making the same or similar mistakes.