Semi-presidential vs. Presidential regime: to what extent do they shape the leadership challenges faced by newly elected Presidents?

This paper aims at building upon two elements. Firstly, drawing on five years of comparative research on the presidential transitions of two American and three French presidents, Obama, Trump, Sarkozy, Hollande, and Macron, this paper aims to explore: to what extent are the leadership challenges in the context of these presidents’ takeovers specific to each presidency? This is essential to understand how the “window of political opportunity” aspect of this changeover would make it possible to define new roles, structures, and power relationships within the administration and between the administration, the legislature, and the media. This paper is in accordance with two observations from the workshop’s abstract. Presidents do remain a neglected topic in European political science even though constitutionally weaker presidents wield considerable influence through various avenues. These cases will then highlight how different political and institutional systems lead to various challenges for presidents’ leadership and how they are faced differently. We will explore three ways presidents wield influence, through three dimensions commonly used to understand how political elites take action: Policy; Office; and Votes (Müller, Strom, 1999). Studying the first hundred days through this lens allows us to then classify the challenges presidents encounter; they are not a mere reflection of “campaign pledges” as important as they might be (Guinaudeau, Saurugger, 2018). The “Votes” dimension forces us to focus on elements such as the way the presidential image is shaped, both for the public opinion (first speeches; ceremonies; symbols) and relative to their relationship with the media (management of controversies and criticisms, etc). The “Office” aspect leads up to focus on the way presidents appoint their presidential administration to maximize results by limiting negative externalities. They also need to form a cabinet and assign roles and procedures or create an organizational and political culture consistent with the presidential agenda. The “Policy” aspect relates to several elements, such as: the position and shifts in terms of a political platform following the election; implementation of campaign promises; passing laws; and agenda organization. Some elements are even between “Office” and “Policy”: relationships with the legislative body; the legislative elections in France; and stance adopted relative to political allies. All of these dimensions play a major role in shaping the presidential transition process and the first hundred days as a whole. For instance, explaining how presidential leadership evolves alongside executive-legislative relationships necessarily draws our attention to the first months defining period into the presidency. The way they unfold is therefore crucial and informative. Different strategies are pursued by various presidents, with different implications. If the difference between a presidential system and a semi-presidential one is important, it is far from being the only variable to consider. Based on three types of data and the process-tracing method, this paper includes interviews with staff of presidents, media material, testimonial material, and institutional data. As a former Visiting Scholar at the Miller Center (UVA), I will also rely on their work titled the "First-Year Project" and the center’s considerable resources.