Gearing up to manage deep uncertainty - Comparing government’s tools to support policymaking of complex issues

This research paper presents a multi-criteria comparison of two methodologies used in anticipatory governance: foresight-based scenario building and exploratory modelling. Prompted by the growing adoption of anticipatory governance in European policy-making, the study aims to highlight the unique strengths and weaknesses of each methodology. The research questions revolve around understanding the core principles, methodologies, costs, reproducibility of insights, technical difficulties, relevance of insights for decision-makers, coverage of possible futures, and cultural fit within policymaking organisations of both approaches. The research methodology comprises a rapid literature review, case study analysis, expert interviews, and comparative analysis. Foresight-based scenario building is older than exploratory modelling and currently the more prominent approach in anticipatory governance. Despite their shared goal of exploring future uncertainties, there has been little interaction between the foresight and exploratory modelling communities. This lack of interaction, coupled with the longer history of the foresight-based approach, has likely contributed to its current prominence in anticipatory governance. This research aims to impact policy-making, by guiding in the choice between the two methods and stimulate further interaction and collaboration between the foresight and exploratory modelling communities.