Population Innumeracy and Anti-Immigrant Violence: The Case of South Africa

Several studies find links between immigrant population innumeracy and anti-immigrant attitudes. It seems that when people over-estimate the size of foreign-born populations in their country, they also tend to be more hostile toward them. But can these inflated perceptions also result in anti-immigrant actions and behaviors, even acts of violence? The current study examines this question with unique data from the South African Social Attitudes Survey from 2019. The nation of South Africa stands as an outlier when it comes to acts of xenophobia. Harassment, violence, vigilantism, and riots targeting foreigners occur with frightening regularity. It is also a context where misperceptions about immigrants are pervasive. But can these help to explain South Africa’s anti-immigrant violence? The current research considers this possibility by examining the association between population innumeracy and whether respondents have participated or would consider participating in violent, anti-immigrant behaviors. The results indicate that population innumeracy is extraordinarily high in South Africa, among the highest ever recorded. Further these misperceptions are associated with both a greater likelihood of participating in violent action against immigrants and a greater willingness to engage in violence against immigrants if one hasn’t already. This is particularly true among the most extreme over-estimators. The associations hold net of anti-immigrant attitudes, perceptions of threat, demographic controls, province fixed effects, and two different innumeracy operationalizations. The findings mark the first time that research has demonstrated a link between innumeracy and anti-immigrant actions, which has several implications for future research and inter-group relations more generally.