Affective polarization, political distrust, and populist attitudes: longitudinal evidence from Italy

Affective polarization, or hostility between the members of opposing political camps, is documented to be on the rise in two-party and multi-party systems. At the same time, individuals’ populist attitudes and distrust in the main actors of political representation (political parties and politicians) are gaining relevance within the academic community. To what extent and under which conditions do affective polarization and political distrust have an impact on populist attitudes? These dimensions share several key factors (such as the Manichean dichotomic distinction between ‘Us’ and ‘Them’), but empirical research on this topic is scarce. I explore the relationship between affective polarization, distrust in the main actors of political representation and demand-side populism with longitudinal data by using an original panel survey conducted in Italy. In this paper, I focus exclusively on the people-centrist dimension of populist attitudes. For the purposes of the analysis, I will rum a panel data analysis with random effects. The results of the empirical analysis show that affective polarization - measured as the aggregated mean distance from the most liked leader and group of voters - and political distrust are associated with individuals’ belief in the centrality of the people. But, even more importantly, affective polarization has a higher impact on people with low levels of trust in the main actors of political representation, compared with those individuals who have faith in their representatives. These findings show that affective polarization and political distrust have a direct and conditional impact on populist attitudes, depending on the levels of political distrust. This paper contributes to research on the affective and attitudinal correlates of populism at the individual level, which is essential to understanding why these phenomena are so strong in contemporary democracies.