Between a rock and a hard place: the impact of rule of law backsliding on the EU’s response to the Russo-Ukrainian war

In the past decade, two EU member states, Hungary and Poland, have experienced a process of rule of law backsliding that threatens the state of democracy at home, and affects the decision making and legitimacy of the European Union as a whole. The rule of law or autocracy crisis that has since engulfed the EU has been characterised by scholars as an “existential crisis.” The governments of Hungary and Poland have systemically annihilated checks and balances following the blueprint of Putinism, by restricting judicial independence, freedom of expression, minority rights and independent scrutiny. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, bringing war to Europe once more, and putting the EU’s unity and cooperation to the test. In the face of Russian aggression, the response of Hungary and Poland has been diametrically opposed, but equally damaging to the EU rule of law. On one hand, Hungary embraced its position as Russia’s closest ally and held decision making within the EU hostage until it obtained concessions that allow further domestic autocratization. On the other hand, Poland has been the strongest advocate for a united response against Russia, instrumentalising its newfound sense of cooperation as a “get out of jail free” card, having its rule of law sins forgiven despite the lack of any improvement. The present paper will analyse the Hungarian and Polish governments’ response to the Russian invasion, and it will argue that war has highlighted major pitfalls in the EU’s policy toward backsliding government, which continue to benefit from funds and veto powers, undermining the EU’s effectiveness in the process. Could the conflict be the breaking point, showing that the EU can be tough on autocrats outside and within its borders? Or will European autocrats continue to undermine efforts towards peace for their own gains?