The Urban Roots of Populism: mapping and explaining populist hotbeds within major Italian cities (2013-2022)

The impact of local contexts on populist vote is receiving more attention, after being initially underestimated by the relevant literature. Populist support tends to be concentrated in areas “left behind” or “that don’t matter”, but we still lack an accurate understanding of (1) the locations of these places within major cities and (2) what characteristics of urban contexts prompt the populist vote. We aim to bridge this gap by analysing precinct-level electoral results of populist parties within 6 major Italian cities over the 2013-2022 decade. Through novel maps of the within-city populist vote, we identify four types of urban environments: populist strongholds, emerging populist, sporadically populist, and never-populist areas. We then investigate the connection between intra-urban compositional and contextual determinants and populist support, revealing which urban factors are associated with the success of ideologically different populist parties. Findings improve our comprehension of the urban “places of populism” and highlight the need for the “left behind” thesis to focus on within-city divides more.