Navigating Uncertainty: The Impact of Political Competence on Government Satisfaction and Trust during the COVID-19 Crisis

The Covid-19 pandemic was a pivotal moment for governments and political leadership worldwide. The hard decisions made during this crisis not only put satisfaction with the government to the test but also political trust. Previous research has demonstrated that the relationship between these two variables is intricate and has potentially evolved over the course of the Covid-19 crisis. In this study, we offer a novel framework for comprehending shifts in political trust and explore to what extent it interacts with satisfaction for incumbent government and individual political efficacy. The Covid-19 period has exemplified a social crisis marked by profound uncertainty. On the one hand, it has prompted people to rely on and endorse national political institutions. On the other hand, as the crisis has dragged on, it has engendered politicization and resistance among citizens towards various measures. In general, citizens' trust in the political system renders it more resilient during a crisis, allowing for the introduction of new legislation and recommendations. Trust also provides citizens with predictability and reduces overall complexity, enabling individuals to act more easily during times of crisis. Therefore, trust at the systemic level should remain stable and not fluctuate based on the actions of individual political actors or governments. However, this type of informed trust necessitates political competence, that is, citizens who comprehend the complexity of social issues and have confidence in their ability to participate in society. Without competence, trust in the system can be blind, rendering citizens too complacent to participate. Nonetheless, representative democracy is fundamentally predicated on the trust that forms the foundation for political actors and institutions to function without constant scrutiny and intervention from citizens. While prior research has illuminated how people respond to the performance of governments when re-evaluating their political trust, there is a notable gap in knowledge concerning the role of citizens' political competence in this relationship. Furthermore, longitudinal studies on the causes of variations in political trust are scarce, despite numerous studies underscoring the importance and change of trust during a crisis. To bridge these gaps, we utilized four-wave population-level longitudinal panel data (N=535) collected in Finland before and at various points during the Covid-19 period. Using the random effects within-between framework, we discovered that at the outset of the pandemic, trust in political institutions rose for those who were satisfied with government responses to the crisis. However, as the pandemic continued, the relationship remained but began to reverse: trust in political institutions decreased among those dissatisfied with government performance. Interestingly, the relationship between satisfaction in government and political trust was moderated by political competence. Among those with extremely low or high levels of political competence, political trust did not change significantly during the crisis. Nevertheless, among those with average or high levels of political competence, political trust fluctuated significantly in response to government performance.