For Richer or For Poorer, Polarisation Affects Us All: Analysing the Role of Economic Hardship in Shaping Affective Polarisation in Europe

Since the 2008 financial and European debt crisis, many European citizens have become increasingly distrustful towards politics. Concurrently, US polarisation literature showed that people perceive politics in affective rather than ideological terms, coining the term affective polarisation – the difference between positive bias towards in-group members and negative bias towards out-group members. Affective polarisation has repeatedly been linked to problematic consequences, such as democratic dysfunction and out-group discrimination. As its causes remain understudied in Europe, this paper explores whether individuals suffering from economic hardship are more affectively polarised. By experiencing negative emotions and a lack of self-esteem, individuals are theorised to emphasise group identity to recuperate status, which strengthens social distance towards out-group members. While financial and job insecurity literature tends to focus on objective measures, this paper also considers people’s perceptions of these insecurities. Moreover, it will test for the moderating effects of personality traits, such as neuroticism and narcissism. The empirical analysis will rely on novel nationally representative data collected in 11 European countries (N = 12.000), covering Northern, Central and Southern Europe. While still reeling from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, many European countries are currently experiencing historically high inflation rates resulting in increased economic suffering for large parts of the populace. As exemplified in the US, when economic deprivation coupled with other factors gives rise to pernicious polarisation, it can be a dangerous source of destabilisation for both personal relationships and democratic society at large.