Exploring Individual And Aggregate Patterns Of Class Voting In The Context Of The 2018 Paraguayan Election

A fundamental research issue in the social sciences lies in finding a theoretical categorization of the social structure that can provides an empirical basis for voting behavior. This article evaluates the political relevance of social class in the unique context of Paraguay, which lacks a history of left-wing politics. It then aims to use these findings to explain voting patterns in the 2018 general election, which saw the ruling Colorado Party (ANR, Asociación Nacional Republicana) seemingly consolidate its grip on power across the country with the election of Mario Abdo Benitez. The methodological approach adopted in this work is two-pronged, covering both the individual and the aggregate level. For the former, the authors propose a social scheme of Paraguay for purposes constructed using Latinobarómetro and LAPOP’s AmericasBarometer data. Then, the aggregate analysis uses census data concerning income, sector of occupation, prevalence of salaried work and indigenous identity – all available at the municipal level – as predictors of voting patterns in the 2018 election. Our work finds that class differences relevant for voting behavior are mostly reproduced between of rural and urban communities and in whether women work as salaried employees, a marker of middle-class belonging. Surprisingly, indigenous communities do not diverge from the rest of the country in their voting patterns, except for a higher prevalence of invalid voting.