When perception shapes reality: Effects of perceived income inequality and social mobility on affective polarisation

Affective polarization is seen as one important driving force favoring democratic erosion. Consequently, research on affective polarization and its causes has gained more and more momentum. Similarly, economic inequality is suspected to influence a broad spectrum of attitudes and behaviors affecting democratic stability ranging from the deterioration of social trust to fostering populist attitudes. Thus, linking these two phenomena seems particularly promising when trying to understand the dynamics and causes of the crisis of democracy. However, relevant studies, so far, have mainly operated with objective levels of economic inequality and neglected the role of perceptions thereof. We contribute to this field of research in three ways: (1) After we establish the theoretical link, we empirically test whether perceptions of income inequality enhance affective polarization. (2) In doing so and congruent with a growing body of research, we focus on subjective perceptions on the individual level. (3) We assume a moderating role of perceived income mobility and examine whether perceptions of high income mobility diminish the positive effect of perceived income inequality on affective polarization by increasing tolerance for income inequality. Using an information treatment including visual and textual components in a factorial survey experiment (N=2717), the perceived levels of inequality and social mobility were successfully influenced. When running the analysis with post-treatment measurements of perceptions of income inequality and mobility, it reveals (1) a significant effect of inequality perceptions on affective polarization and (2) mixed results regarding the moderating role of perceived income mobility. However, these effects disappear when using the membership in the treatment groups as the independent variable. Although a common pattern in experimental research on the effects of inequality perceptions, this challenges the causality of the anticipated links raising the question which components included in the post-treatment measurement of inequality perceptions drive affective polarization.