Poland’s Coal Crisis in the Shadow of Ukraine War: Better an End with Pain than Pain without End

The Russian invasion of Ukraine initially raised the prospect of a coal resurgence in Poland and the European Union (EU), as coal was seen as a secure, domestic, and dependable energy source amidst the crisis. However, empirical research has revealed a starkly different reality. Coal, instead of becoming a stabilizing force, exacerbated instability in the Polish energy sector, laying bare the country's heavy dependence on Russian coal and imports. The traditional Polish coal imaginary, deeply ingrained in national identity, has eroded, with few champions left to advocate for its revival. Governments are actively promoting alternative energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and renewables, while even coal unions have shifted focus from coal's resurgence to safeguarding social benefits. Positive visions for non-coal technologies and fuels are gaining traction, while coal's once-potent rhetorical appeal has faded. This study finds that the war crisis did not reverse the decline of the dominant Polish coal imaginary; instead, it accelerated its demise. While alternative energy narratives gain strength, a coherent and positive vision for Poland's non-coal energy future remains elusive. The implications extend to the EU, where shared decarbonization goals seem secure, as Poland is unlikely to spearhead a campaign to rescue coal. Thus, the war has not revitalized coal but rather reinforced alternative energy narratives, reshaping the discourse on Poland's energy transition.