Is the implementation of the European Green Deal a shift towards ‘hard’ governance? An analysis of the ‘Fit for 55’ Package and its effects on the transport sector

The European Green Deal (EGD) is the latest and most ambitious step in an evolution of European policy initiatives towards a just transition to carbon neutrality. The comprehensiveness of its ambition is evident in the multisectoral integration of its governance and regulatory arrangement that looks beyond the traditional separation of energy and environmental policy and legislative frameworks. At the same time, the EGD incorporates hitherto unconnected – albeit relevant – policy areas such as the transport sector. Utilizing the theoretical concept of a continuum between the categories of hard and soft law at either end of the spectrum, this article investigates whether the evolution of EU policies aimed at ecological transition and the implementation of associated legislative instruments is exhibiting a tendency towards hardening or softening governance. The concept is operationalized in two analyses of the ‘Fit for 55’ package. While the academic literature on various assessment methodologies of the package is growing, most studies are either focused on the economic effectiveness of various sectoral effects or feasibility in a case study context. The broader governance perspective on the EGD and its implementation remains understudied. The first application presented in this paper is a general assessment of the ‘Fit for 55’ package. The set of legislative instruments is collectively analyzed in the context of several policy trajectories: 1) in meeting its stated goal of delivering the EGD, 2) in contributing to the EU’s collective commitment towards the global objective of combating climate change within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the targets of the Paris Agreement, 3) as the evolution of previous Energy Packages by aligning energy and climate policy objectives, and 4) in achieving the policy priorities of the Energy Union and its existing governance framework. The second application examines in further detail the widening scope of the EGD, and more specifically the aforementioned extension of its regulatory framework to the transport sector. To that end, the paper will provide a detailed document analysis focusing on the provisions of four legislative instruments: 1) the revised Regulation (EU) 2023/851 aimed at strengthening the CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles in line with the Union’s increased climate ambition, 2) the Regulation for the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure (AFIR), 3) the FuelEU Maritime Regulation on the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels in maritime transport, and 4) the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation on ensuring a level playing field for sustainable air transport. In addition, the paper will comment on the reforms of the EU Emissions Trading System that were made in order to facilitate the inclusion of the transport sector to the carbon pricing regulatory apparatus.