Losing Sahel? Assessing the EU’s decade-long endeavour in Mali and Niger

Since 2013, the European Union (EU) launched three Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions in the Sahel: EUTM Mali, EUCAP Sahel Mali and EUCAP Sahel Niger. In 2020-2021, the EU partly revised its emphasis placed on the military component of the EU strategy, and decided on a "civil surge" focusing on good governance and providing basic services to the local population. This paper explores the origin and evolution of the EU strategy and assesses its impact against the backdrop of Sahelian magmatic political dynamics and the initiatives of other countries, particularly those of France and Russia. It evaluates whether the EU’s strategy revision was the product of experience and circumstances, or rather the result of a longer-lasting normative culture constraining the Union when it comes to employing hard power. The paper also evaluates the potential of the EU’s "new course" by critically examining the degree to which a strategy based on soft power and with a humanitarian emphasis can realistically be pursued in a militarised crisis. In so doing, the paper also puts forward policy recommendations to prevent a progressive EU withdrawal from a key African region.