The consequences of far-right mobilization and violence on public opinion

The global surge in far-right movements is becoming increasingly apparent, encompassing both traditional protests like PEGIDA in Germany and more violent incidents such as the 2021 Capitol attack in Washington. These events underscore that far-right influence in modern societies extends beyond electoral outcomes, revitalising debates about their impact on citizens satisfaction with democracy. While research has mainly focused on far-right party support and progressive movements' effects on public opinion, the consequences of street-level far-right protests and violence on citizens’ attitudes remain unexplored. This study seeks to address this gap using a natural experimental approach. By analysing extensive worldwide surveys involving over 42,500 responses, we causally assess the effects of 17 far-right protests and 24 violent events in 11 European democratic countries on citizens' political satisfaction. The findings suggest that the consequences of these events on public opinion depend on far-right tactics and individuals’ political leanings. Conventional protests boost satisfaction among conservatives but decrease it among liberals, while violent events have the opposite effect. These findings support the idea that the far right undermines its own legitimacy when resorting to undemocratic violent tactics.