A Tow-Level Game: The Security Determinants of the Libyan Transition

The divergent transition path on which some countries in the MENA region embarked after the 2011 uprisings sparked extensive scholarly attention. While the state remained largely intact in Egypt or Tunisia, the violent revolt in Libya led to civil conflicts and the collapse of governmental institutions. However, there is limited research about what happens in the aftermath of this collapse. This paper aims to fil this void in the literature and analyses what shaped the transition path in Libya after regime change focusing on the security factors. It uses qualitative content analysis of official documents and media reports, and 26 semi-structured interviews conducted in 2023 with key Libyan respondents including a former deputy prime minister, former ministers, current and former MPs, a former secretary general of a political party, a former director of a Libyan TV channel, radio broadcasters, NGOs leaders, tribal leaders, human rights activists, and others. The data analysis is done with the help of process tracing. The main results indicate that several security domestic and international factors such as, the type of military response to the uprising, non-state armed groups, and external intervention shape the country’s transition.