Prevention as protection: why understanding the process of autocratisation is essential

The EU's internal challenge for decades now has been to confront, stop and reverse the democratic backsliding and autocratisation of Member States, and Article 7 of TEU is an ex post procedure for the EU, which is intended to sanction violations of the fundamental values. The process of backsliding/autocratisation takes time, it does not happen overnight. This, and the close links and coexistence between the Member States and the EU, raises the question of what room for manoeuvre the EU has to prevent or avoid autocratisation. The hypothesis of the study is that the instruments and mandates currently available to the EU would allow for stronger action than has been possible so far, thus providing ex ante possibilities for action in the case of backsliding/autocratisation. However, to recognise this, the EU institutions need to change the approach with which they defend Article 2. Currently, we see a results-oriented approach: if a breach occurs, the EU acts. However, a process-oriented approach could also be possible: in this case, the EU can act to protect the democratic and rule of law framework of the Member State at the very beginning of the autocratisation process. A precondition for this is to make the process of autocratisation clear and recognizable. Thus, protection could mean not only sanctioning, but also preventing backsliding and autocratisation. First, the paper conceptualizes the result-oriented and process-oriented approaches in the light of current literature of rule of law and democracy issues in the EU. Second, it conceptualizes the dynamics of autocratization (based on the Hungarian and Polish examples, extended with further, third country cases). Finally, it analyses the options and additional leeway the EU has in this process, beyond what is already known, to prevent democratic backsliding/autocratisation, rather than sanctioning it when it occurs.