As it approaches the 20th anniversary of its declaration of independence, the de facto sovereignty of the Republic of Somaliland remains entirely unrecognized by the international community. This is perhaps surprising given the strength of Somaliland’s territorial claim as a former separate colony, its previous (albeit brief) independent statehood, its significant democratic accomplishments and the extreme and persistent failure of its juridical parent state Somalia. There is a widespread expectation in the scholarly literature on de facto states that these entities are “a fleeting or temporary phenomena” (Spears) or should be “regarded as essentially transient phenomena… that… will sooner or later disappear” (Kolstø). In the case of Somaliland, this general expectation is strengthened by the fragility of its political economy and by the fact that in contrast to other de facto states such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the government in Hargeisa is not protected by a major external patron. Yet, paradoxically, the absence of an external patron has arguably facilitated domestic legitimacy by enabling Somaliland to develop a mix of traditional and democratic institutions suitable for its own people – in sharp contrast to the externally-supported, internationally-recognized and ultimately illegitimate parent state from which it seceded. This paper argues that given the interests of outside actors, the dim prospects for the construction of a viable state in Somalia, the active engagement of a transnational diaspora and its own internal achievements, the safest prediction for Somaliland is an extended period of continued ambiguous de facto statehood. Indeed, given this likelihood, it is essential to consider various forms of accommodation short of juridical recognition which can better facilitate Somaliland’s integration into the international community, preserve the tangible gains it has made toward providing peace and democracy for its citizens and improve its prospects for economic development.
