Place, Performance and Political Trust: The Welfare State as Catalyst and Cushion for the Rural-Urban Divide

Rural development in Europe has been increasingly uneven, with growing differences between well-off and marginal rural areas within countries following the Financial Crisis and subsequent austerity (Bock 2015). Recent work demonstrates that the marginalization of rural areas and, more specifically the decline of local public services, has important consequences for political behaviour as it dampens turnout (Cramer 2016) and boosts local support for radical right populist parties (RRPP) (Harteveld et al. 2021, Cremaschi et al. 2022). It is commonly assumed that local marginalization generates a sense that the state has ‘left one’s place behind’ and is not responsive to one’s needs (Cramer 2016). Yet, existing work on the effects of local marginalization is missing a key link: citizens’ satisfaction and experiences with key public services. Using work on how welfare state performance and “quality of government” shapes political trust (de Blok and Kumlin 2022; Bauhr and Charron 2023) we develop hypotheses about how these factors might serve as both cushion as well as catalyst for political distrust and RRRP support. Using unique individual-level panel data on direct welfare state evaluations and experiences in Norway, gathered in 60 strategically selected contexts (both rural and urban), and building on theories on procedural fairness and policy feedback, we study the conditions under which local marginalization produces political resentment.