The challenge of raising climate ambitions in times of crisis and environmental backlash: the case of the EU ‘Green Deal’

Riding on the wave of climate mobilisations coalescing around 2019-2020, the Commission of President Ursula van der Leyen has made climate commitments one of its core priorities with the launch of its EU ‘Green Deal’. To deliver on the EU’s flagship targets of reducing net Green House Gas Emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050, the Commission is currently finalising the adoption of its ‘Fit for 55’ legislative package in time for the next European elections. Yet, since the launch at the ‘Green Deal’ in late 2019, the political momentum for climate action has weakened. The war in Ukraine and concerns about the security of European energy supplies have led to the adoption of policies that favour alternative fossil fuel suppliers and infrastructures. In parallel costs of living concerns have also been instrumentalised to challenge climate and environmental protection measures, both at national and EU levels. This paper asks whether these challenges represent a risk to the implementation of the ‘Green Deal’ and to the EU’s future ambitions. Drawing on institutionalist theories of change, it tracks institutional resilience and change, focusing on a selected number of key policies of the ‘Fit for 55’ package.