The Home Front of Authoritarian Regionalism: Domestic Regime Concerns and CSTO Commitment.

This study delves into an underexplored facet of authoritarian regionalism: the influence of domestic regime concerns on the reaffirmation of political commitments within authoritarian regional organizations. To do so, in the first stage, the study distinguishes four types of commitments made by member-states to regional organisations: formal obligations, routine bureaucracy, financial commitment and political commitment. Focusing on the latter, the study argues that the allied relationships demand the perpetual reaffirmation of political commitment through political positions on issues of concern for the alliance. Consequently, the study draws insights from authoritarian regionalism and foreign policy decision-making literature regarding the reaffirmation of political commitment within authoritarian regional organisations. Based on these insights, the study identifies the home front of authoritarian regionalism – the conditions relevant for the reaffirmation of political commitments. Eventually, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which represents a mature stage of authoritarian regionalism is selected for the case study. Employing fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and collecting data from 2011 to 2021, the empirical analysis tests under which constellation of regime concerns (elections, referendums, power changes, protests, war or military clashes on borders) CSTO member states are more likely to reaffirm their political commitment to the alliance through joint statements. The results help generate hypotheses around the reaffirmation of political commitment by authoritarian governments within regional institutions. These reaffirmations are shown to be a sophisticated strategic exercise, finely tuned to the political stability or turbulence faced by member states. Findings reveal that the reaffirmation of political commitment serves as both defensive and offensive strategies, contingent on critical moments such as elections or protests. The study's results advocate a nuanced conceptualization of "contingent authoritarian regionalism," where political commitment within alliances is a complex interplay of various conditions.