Throughout modernity, volatile European demographics have been accompanied by stories of over- and under-population. For countries like France there have been persistent anxieties about population decline and its effects on imperial ambition. In countries like England there have been enduring Malthusian concerns about population growth. In the mid-C20th, population explosion was associated with environmental degradation but in the C21st, Europeans worry that low fertility and population ageing will adversely affect Europe’s global standing. While the Lisbon Treaty includes commitments to pronatalism and immigration, environmentalists cite population growth as a significant factor in climate change. These stories do reflect changing demographic trajectories but they are also interwoven with broader narratives of progress and decline and with insecurities about the nation’s/Europe’s place in a competitive world. The paper examines three kinds of population story: • the emergence of population narratives of growth and decline late C18th – midC20th, their interweaving with narratives of political economy, imperialism and colonialism and their investment with modernist notions of progress and decline, resulting in eugenics programmes. • contemporary European narratives of population ageing and decline in a context of geopolitical worries about security, military prowess and economic competitiveness, where pronatalist and immigration policies are mobilised by demographic projections. • the narrative inherent in current demographic thinking itself, namely, demographic transition theory. In each case, the analysis will look at the context and substance of the narrative; the narrative structure and plot line; the affective investments it carries; the assumptions underlining it and the policies it supports.
